Lowedown (Grand Final analysis)

NEWCASTLE HERALD

David Lowe, a former Socceroo, Newcastle captain and NSL championship winner with Marconi, analyses the A-League grand final.

THE TACTICS

Before I launch into what might happen in the battle of tactics between the two coaches, let me make a quick disclaimer.

Disregard all that is written after this point if the playing surface is badly affected by the Saturday night NRL trial games traffic.

We will still get a good contest but possibly not a whole lot of footballing science.

The Mariners

Mariners coach Lawrie McKinna would have been happy with his side's performance in the two semi-final legs against Newcastle.

He will stick to his regulation 4-4-2. Andre Gumprecht will be a direct swap for Tom Pondeljak if the latter is ruled out with injury.

McKinna's side played with good width in those two matches. Kwasnik and Pondeljak hugged the touchlines and attracted the attention of Newcastle's fullbacks.

That in turn opened up passing avenues into the feet of strikers Aloisi and Petrovski.

Sounds nice and simple, but it relies on the duo of Jedinak and Hutchinson winning the battle in midfield often against three opponents.

They did that in the semi-finals, but with Musialik in Newcastle's side the task is more difficult.

He will drop deep to pick up the ball, and if Hutchinson or Jedinak wants to apply pressure, the Jets will have a two-one advantage further upfield.

If a wide midfielder tucks in, the Jets will have a fullback outlet, or if the Mariners push on someone from the back four, holes will be created for Griffiths, Bridge and company to exploit.

Don't be surprised if the Mariners allow Newcastle's fullbacks to have the ball and ask Aloisi and Petrovski to pressure the two central defenders and Musialik, at least in the Jets' half.

The Jets

Jets coach Gary van Egmond would have concentrated on two or three things this week.

Number one will have been the need to compete. His side were physically bullied in the two semi-final legs, and I expect they will respond with plenty of aggression in the opening 10 minutes.

He and assistant Mark Jones will have conjured a plan to cut off the supply of ball to the feet of Aloisi and Petrovski.

That pair hold the ball up well and allow the Mariners to set up for crosses into the box and provide time for the late runs of midfielders.

I think Andrew Durante and Jade North will have been encouraged to be proactive and try to win the ball in front of the strikers. This may encourage the Mariners to look over the top, where Newcastle's pace should mop up any threat.

Van Egmond has great faith in his 4-2-3-1 formation and will probably start that way. But if Aloisi and Petrovski are having too much joy, he won't be afraid to change.

It might be a touch old hat, but van Egmond's side have the versatility to slip into a 3-5-2 or 3-5-1-1, or even a 3-1-4-2 if required.

And if that last paragraph seemed like a telephone list, here's the basic premise.

After the dust has settled, you play your two most athletic defenders, Adam Griffiths and Jade North, as markers. This leaves Andrew Durante free to mop up anything over the top.

The wide areas, which concern coaches in this formation, would be covered by the pace of Elrich and D'Apuzzo or Thompson.

In theory, that could leave Holland and Musialik opposed by Jedinak and Hutchinson, but with one advanced and one deep, pressure is hard to apply.

It would also leave Thompson one-on-one with Boogaard and Bridge one-on-one with Ceccoli and Joel Griffiths occupying the attention of the central defensive pairing.

Finally, van Egmond will insist on improvement at set pieces, which have been sub-par in recent weeks.

The Key:

There are a lot of ifs and buts to consider, but the key to the match is how effective the Mariners' pressure game is for 90 minutes.

How high up the pitch will they have to defend to impart pressure on Musialik?

If the answer is too high, and their back four is caught near halfway, they will get burned by Joel Griffiths's pace.

Look out for Mark Bridge to sign off with a bang, and the clever Korean Song Jin-hyung to have an influence late on.

Make no mistake, the Mariners can pass the football as well but are keen to win the ball further up the pitch, go wide, and provide good service to Aloisi and Petrovski to attack. They are also very dangerous at set pieces.

I reckon you might need to plan on arriving home an hour later than scheduled, but I'm convinced that the A-League title will be heading up the F3 on Sunday night.





JETS 4-2-3-1

Ante Covic: Has been solid all season. Will be hoping to maintain that consistency for one more week. His domination of the 18-yard box against a team that thrives on crosses and set pieces will be vital.

Tarek Elrich: Probably the most improved player at the club. Not the most natural defender, and can be a little slow to tuck in when playing in a back four. However, his pace is excellent and allows him to recover defensively as well as providing great thrust going forward.

Andrew Durante: Very consistent, reliable operator. Good competitor, reads the game well and is comfortable on the ball. His and defensive partner Jade North's duels with Petrovski and Aloisi will be key for the Jets.

Jade North: The skipper is a magnificent athlete. Has been terrific all season. Very quick, great vertical jump and playing with increased maturity. If he and Durante break even with Petrovski and Aloisi, the Jets will just about win.

Adam D'Apuzzo: Will he or won't he play at left back? Did a great job in his "horses for courses" move there last week. Quick, strong and reliable, and if he plays, it frees up Matt Thompson to play further forward.

Adam Griffiths: Super athlete, great energy. His tackling and physical presence in midfield were vital last week. His tussle with Jedinak and Hutchinson will be no place for the faint-hearted. Model good looks but hard-nosed competitor.

Stuart Musialik: Fine young player. Good passer from his anchor midfield role. Many, including Mariners coach Lawrie McKinna, believe he makes Newcastle tick. Will attract attention but has the belief to keep getting possession, changing the point of attack, and facilitating those around him. A key man.

Matt Thompson: Found himself back in midfield last week and thrived on it. Very confident player, willing to take players on and experiment. Has the pace to get beyond the Mariners back four and cause real havoc. Will shoot on sight.

James Holland: The find of the year for Newcastle. Probably yet to adjust to the pace of finals football, but van Egmond has major belief in him. Good enough to bounce back here, and his box-to-box capacity and knack for scoring make him very valuable.

Mark Bridge: Playing perhaps his last game for the club. Has the skill and nous to unlock defences. Good finisher who has a habit of notching against his mate Danny Vukovic. Will interchange roles with Joel Griffiths, and the closer together these two are in attack, the better it will be for the Jets.

Joel Griffiths: The main man. Player of the year, leading scorer. If he produces the goods on grand final day, it will cap one of the best performances seen in a season of domestic football for quite some time. Extra quick, aggressive and playing with massive confidence.





LIKELY BENCH

Song Jin-hyung: Talented, technically gifted player. Excellent passer and showed his understanding of the game by winning a vital penalty last week.

Noel Spencer: Good professional. Always produces when given an opportunity. Good long-passing game, and his size helps out aerially in defensive situations.

Troy Hearfield: Solid performer. Needs a little bit of luck in front of goal to relax him. But for Vukovic's face, he might have been an extra-time hero a fortnight ago.

Denni: Busy, tricky player who can cause problems. If he could find some finishing boots, he could be an X-factor.

Ben Kennedy: BK is a very talented keeper. Won't let anyone down if he is called on.







MARINERS 4-4-2

Danny Vukovic: Like Covic, has enjoyed a good consistent season. Excellent reflexes and big personality. Must temper forays off his line, particularly if Joel Griffiths breaks the offside trap, for danger of mistimed tackles and being sent off.

Nigel Boogaard: Big, strong and versatile defender. Decent passer and a good reader of the game. Will enjoy the heat of battle, and is a sneaky aerial threat at attacking set pieces.

Alex Wilkinson: The captain is a good all-round defender. Capable in the air, good pace and organisational skills. He and partner Tony Vidmar will have their hands full keeping Joel Griffiths quiet.

Tony Vidmar: I spent a few seasons chasing this young whippet up and down touchlines at Hindmarsh Stadium when The Knack were going to be the next Beatles! Legend in Australian football, playing his last game. Almost always performs on the big occasions and has lifted in the finals series.

Alvin Ceccoli: When he left Sydney for Japan, I thought he was close to the best left back in the country. Hasn't quite regained that form but is very experienced and a dangerous crosser of the ball.

Mile Jedinak: Key component to the Mariners title chase. Huge energy and work-rate combined with imposing physique spells influential midfielder. Excellent in the air at both ends, and possesses powerful long-range shot.

John Hutchinson: Good all-round footballer. Can pass, can dribble, shields the ball expertly. Not afraid to put a foot in when required. Decent finisher inside the penalty area and an accurate long-range shot in either foot.

Tom Pondeljak/Andre Gumprecht: Not sure if Pondeljak will be fit to play, and if he is missing, it will be a blow to the Mariners. A clever and still quick midfielder who can create an opportunity from nothing. Makes great runs behind defenders, scores goals and is very experienced in grand finals. Andre Gumprecht will give his heart and soul if Pondeljak is ruled out. Great competitor who will probably produce about 60 minutes of 100 per cent intensity from his warrior legs before tiring. His non-stop forward running makes things happen.

Adam Kwasnik: Versatile, energetic player. Has a knack for scoring vital goals. Never afraid to take someone on and, given a whiff of a shooting chance, will pull the trigger. Can play up front if required.

Sasho Petrovski: Enigmatic, brooding character. Never far from an argument with a referee or an opponent. Highly talented striker who enjoys the spotlight. Has a nose for goals, can find half a yard of space, and is an instinctive finisher.

John Aloisi: Mariners mid-season signing who has strengthened their title challenge enormously. Not perhaps as quick as he was, but always busy for the entire 90 minutes. Uses his body better than any other striker in the country, is brave in the air, and has made a very healthy living out of sticking half-chances in the back of the net. Mariners main man.





LIKELY BENCH

Matt Simon: Big, strong, quick and full of enthusiasm. Yet to score in the A-League but does cause defenders a host of problems.

Greg Owens: Quick, athletic and talented. Can glide past people in midfield, and has the capacity to produce a show-stopping shot.

Andrew Clark: Quick, no-nonsense defender who can play centrally or at right back. Doubles as the team's conditioner, and thus his hard-nosed, ruthless attitude is no surprise.

Brad Porter: Good, solid, versatile player who can do a job in midfield or at fullback.

Matthew Trott: Has filled in capably for Danny Vukovic several times.

---

Article source: http://theherald.yourguide.com.au/news/sport/soccer/lowedown/1188656.html